Tony Blair in discussions to run transitional Gaza authority

According to the BBC, former UK Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair has been involved in discussions about establishing a post-war transitional government in Gaza. The plan, which is expected to have support from the White House, would see Blair lead a governing authority backed by the UN and Gulf countries before handing over to Palestinians. His office has stated that he would not accept any proposal that would displace the people of Gaza.

Sir Tony, who led the UK into the Iraq war in 2003, is involved in high-level planning talks with the US and other groups about Gaza's future. In August, he attended a White House meeting with US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss the territory's strategic options, which Witkoff described as "very extensive"—although no other information was given regarding the meeting.

The Proposed "Gaza International Transitional Authority" (GITA)

According to reports in the Israeli media, Blair could lead the Gaza International Transitional Authority (GITA). It would require a UN mandate to act as Gaza's "supreme political and legal authority" for five years. The initiative would be based on the international administrations that oversaw East Timor and Kosovo's transitions to statehood. It would first be based in Egypt near Gaza's southern border before heading to Gaza once the Strip is stable, as part of a multinational force.

Blair's decision to commit British forces to the 2003 Iraq war was heavily criticised in the official inquiry into the conflict, which found that he had acted on flawed intelligence without knowing the source of weapons of mass destruction there. After leaving office in 2007, Blair remained the Middle East envoy for the Quartet of international powers (the United States, EU, Russia, and the United Nations). He focused on bringing economic growth to Palestine and establishing the conditions for a two-state solution.

Other Scenarios for Gaza's Future

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said on Thursday that he was willing to collaborate with US President Donald Trump and other world leaders to implement a two-state peace initiative. Abbas argued against a future governing role for Hamas in Gaza and called for it to be disarmed.

Several other scenarios for Gaza's future have been proposed:

• The Trump Plan: In February, Donald Trump proposed that the US take "a long-term ownership position" over Gaza, stating it could become the Middle East's "Riviera." According to the plan, it would require "voluntary" migration to make Palestinians leave the territory.

• The Arab Blueprint: In March, the US and Israel both rejected an Arab blueprint for post-war reconstruction that would have allowed the 2.1 million Palestinians living there to remain in place. Supported by the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, this initiative called for Gaza to be governed temporarily by a commission of independent experts and international peacekeepers.

• The New York Declaration: A French and Saudi-led international conference in New York in July suggested a "transitional administrative committee" for Gaza that would function "under the Palestinian Authority's umbrella." The US and Israel did not attend, but a majority of the UN General Assembly supported the declaration in a vote earlier this month.

Recent Developments in the Region

The United Kingdom officially recognised Palestine earlier this week, alongside France, Canada, Australia, and several other nations. The UK and others reiterated calls for a two-state solution, which would see the establishment of an independent Palestine in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, with East Jerusalem as its capital, alongside Israel. Israel and the United States condemned the step as a "reward for Hamas."

On October 7, 2023, the Israeli military launched a campaign in Gaza in response to the Hamas-led assault on southern Israel, which killed 1,200 people and took 251 others hostage. According to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry, at least 65,000 people have been killed in Israeli attacks in Gaza since then. A United Nations commission of inquiry has concluded that Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, a claim which Israel denies.