Starmer will fight attempts to replace him, allies say

The Prime Minister's allies have made it clear that he would combat any challenge to his leadership from Labour MPs. Many loyal to Sir Keir Starmer are concerned that his career will be in jeopardy, perhaps as soon as the Budget in a fortnight's time.

Downing Street is "in full bunker mode," according to one critic, who added that this "would not help the government out of the hole we're in." Sir Keir's allies are extremely worried about what they see as plotting to replace him and want to make clear what they think are the risks of a leadership challenge.

Those names being considered by Labour MPs as potential replacements include several of his closest cabinet allies, such as Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Others are also curious about Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, and backbenchers, including former transport secretary Louise Haigh. Some loyal to the Prime Minister are concerned about Streeting's aspirations.

Streeting denied rumours that he would challenge Sir Keir, calling them "self-defeating nonsense," and said he was not briefing against the Prime Minister when speaking to BBC Breakfast. When asked if he would ever consider such a move, he replied: "I can't imagine circumstances under which I would do that to our Prime Minister."

He suggested that the Prime Minister dismiss the aide responsible for the briefing, which he described as "the worst assault on a 'Faithful' since Joe Marler was banned in The Traitors final." He said that there was a "toxic atmosphere" in Downing Street that needed to be changed.

"He [the Prime Minister] will combat this," one minister said, before referring to a pivotal by-election in 2021, which Labour lost to the Conservatives, causing Sir Keir to consider resigning. "This is not a Hartlepool moment," they said. "He is one of the few people alive to have won a general election for Labour. After 17 months, it would be madness to run against him."

The View from the Party

According to opinion polls, Sir Keir is deeply unpopular, perhaps even the most unpopular British Prime Minister in the history of modern opinion polling. Polls suggest the Labour Party has enjoyed the support of little more than a quarter of the electorate in recent months.

However, a move to replace Sir Keir is not straightforward. Under Labour's rules, it would take 20% of its MPs—81, given the current size of the parliamentary party—to nominate a candidate.

Plenty of Labour Party members have affirmed that the government is on course for a crunch point after devolved elections in Scotland and Wales, as well as local elections in England, next May. Labour is expected to do badly in those polls, but some in the party are concerned that challengers will not wait until then.

"It's all very well to wait for the locals," one source said, "but that's my activist base I'm sending into the gun battle. I can't lose all my councillors."

"The list of reasons for people to move after the Budget is growing by the day," another Labour source said. "If Wes is brave and moves forward, he may well be rewarded by being Prime Minister by Christmas."

"'Downing Street has stepped into full bunker mode, briefing against their most devoted cabinet members for absolutely no reason," a government source said. "Unfortunately, Keir's team briefing against his own people continues to do so, and now it's Wes' turn," the source said. "A circular firing squad will not help the government out of the hole we're in."

Maurice Glasman, a Labour peer, told BBC Two's Newsnight that he didn't see any candidate who could challenge Sir Keir and that the leadership chatter was "just noise."

"There isn't a definite course... there is no such thing as Keir's opponent. None of those competing have any idea," he said. When asked if Mahmood would be up to the challenge, Lord Glasman said, "Absolutely. I mean, she's the only one of the absolute lot with genuine integrity, but she has a lot to do."

The 'Tory' Argument

Sir Keir's allies are warning colleagues that a leadership race would plunge the party into the chaos of the Conservative Party's last year in office and that a new leader would not have a mandate from the country. They are attempting to warn that a contest could destabilise international markets and jeopardise the Prime Minister's working relationship with President Trump.

However, some, including ministers, are concerned about the government's insecure situation.

"It's terrible. He [Starmer] is hated out there. It's worse than it was under Corbyn."

"I don't see how this will be tenable until May," one minister said.

A cabinet minister who supports the Prime Minister summed up the mood: "There are those who see it as a choice between this Labour government and perfection... But the choice isn't between us and perfection; it's between us and Reform."

The rise of Reform UK has concentrated minds in Downing Street. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage's fight is seen as generation-defining. He [Starmer] believes he has the energy and resources to face and defeat Farage. However, a growing number of his colleagues are still unconvinced.

"We are not like the Tories," one Labour MP first elected last year said. "We're not going to change leader more than once in a parliament."