Trump's Mixed Messages on Iran War Raise More Questions Than Answers

Ten days into the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, President Donald Trump spent Monday sending financial markets on a rollercoaster ride with a string of contradictory statements about the war's progress, goals and timeline.

The day began with oil prices surging past $120 a barrel and US stock indices falling sharply. Trump responded by calling reporters directly in what appeared to be a damage-limitation exercise. "I have a plan for everything, OK?" he told the New York Post when pressed on spiking energy costs. "I have a plan for everything. You'll be very happy." 

To CBS News, he said the war "is very complete, pretty much" and that the operation was "very far ahead of schedule." When asked if it could therefore wrap up soon, Trump said: "I don't know, it depends. Wrapping up is all in my mind, nobody else's."

The phone calls worked — at least temporarily. Stocks recovered and oil dropped back below $90 a barrel.

But by evening, Trump was pulling in a different direction. "We could call it a tremendous success right now," he said. "Or we could go further. And we're going to go further." He described the campaign as an "excursion" and said the US was "very close to finishing" it, but simultaneously warned that strikes would intensify if Iran kept threatening oil tankers. "We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to recover that section of the world," he said.

At a press conference at his Trump National Doral club in Miami, Trump said the war would end "very soon" and listed military achievements: around 80% of Iran's missile launchers have been destroyed, its navy has been sunk - he claimed 46 "top-of-the-line" Iranian ships went down in three and a half days - and its air force and air defences have been dismantled. "We've wiped every single force in Iran out, very completely," he said. "They have no leadership. It's all been blown up."

He also insisted the US had no choice but to strike, claiming that Iran had been days away from attacking America. "Within a week, they were going to attack us, 100 percent. They were ready," Trump said, though neither he nor anyone in his administration has offered evidence for this claim. He added that Iranian missiles had been aimed at Gulf states including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, saying: "I think they were looking to take over the Middle East."

When a reporter pointed out the apparent gap between Trump's suggestion the war was nearly done and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth's recent comment that the heavy bombing campaign had "not even really begun," Trump replied simply: "I think you could say both." He then added: "It's the beginning of building a new country" in a statement that is at odds with his and his aides' repeated insistence that Iraq-style nation-building is not on the agenda.

Trump said he was "disappointed" by Iran's appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who was killed on the first day of the war,  as the country's new leader. "We think it's going to lead to just more of the same problem for the country," he said. When asked whether the new leader had a target on his back, Trump said it would be "inappropriate" to say. Israel has stated it intends to assassinate whoever Iran chooses as Khamenei's successor. Earlier, Trump had been blunter: "Not going to tell you. I'm not happy with him."

Trump also said he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who reportedly floated proposals for a quick end to the conflict. Trump said Putin "was very impressed with what he saw" the US achieve in Iran.

The confusion at the top comes at a difficult moment domestically. US petrol prices have risen to a national average of $3.48 a gallon, which is an increase of 48 cents in a week. February's jobs report, which was released last Friday, showed that the US lost 92,000 jobs, unemployment climbed to 4.4% and labour force participation hit its lowest point since December 2021. Cost of living consistently polls as Americans' top concern, and polls suggest significant opposition to the Iran campaign, which is a combustible combination for a president facing midterm elections in November.

The political pressure is already making itself felt. On Tuesday, voters in a special congressional election in northern Georgia, which is a solidly conservative district that was until recently held by Marjorie Taylor Greene, head to the polls. Even there, unease about the war is palpable. Independent voter Bob Stinnett said he worried the energy price spike could tip the US into recession. "I have supported Trump, but not for this," he said. 

Democratic candidate Shawn Harris, a farmer and retired brigadier general, said the war was working in his favour. "Because gas prices are going up, everything's going through the roof, and it's not because of something else, it's something that we chose to get into," he said. "I think I'm going to pick up more voters simply because we're into a war. And oh by the way, those voters got sons and daughters in the war."

Trump has promised that prices will fall before November. Whether voters believe him, and whether the markets do too, may be among the most consequential questions of his second term.