Reform UK Overtakes Tories in Poll, Farage Declares Opposition to Labour
Farage Declares Reform UK as Main Opposition to Labour
Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, declared his party “the opposition to Labour” after an opinion poll showed it overtaking the Conservatives. The YouGov poll placed Reform at 19%, just ahead of the Tories’ 18%, with Labour leading at 37%. This shift suggests a tough road ahead for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Farage’s return has energized his party, complicating Tory efforts to retain voter support.
Reform UK Overtakes Tories in Poll
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage declared his party “the opposition to Labour” after an opinion poll showed it had overtaken the Conservatives for the first time. This marks a significant moment, indicating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak may face a heavy election defeat.
Poll Results and Implications
The right-wing Reform was at 19% in a survey published by YouGov, one point ahead of Sunak’s Tories, who were pushed into third place. Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, expected to take power in the July 4 general election, leads with 37%.
A Symbolic Shift
Although it is just one poll and not an indicator of a wider trend, it provides a symbolic “crossover moment” that Conservative strategists have feared for months. Sunak’s aides have been trying to persuade typically Tory voters not to back Reform, but Farage’s return has galvanized support for the anti-immigration party.
Sunak’s Response
At the Group of Seven summit in Bari, Italy, Sunak warned that voting for Reform hands Labour a “blank check” to raise taxes. “We’re only halfway through this election, so I’m still fighting very hard for every vote,” he said.
Farage's Challenge to Conservatives
Speaking at a televised ITV debate, Farage told Conservative Cabinet member Penny Mordaunt: “We are now ahead of you in the national polls. A vote for you is actually a vote for Labour.” This counters the Tories’ claim that voting Reform will give Labour a large majority.
Current Polling Trends
Most pollsters still have the Tories in second place, albeit with Reform gaining ground. Britain’s electoral system means that even if Reform wins more votes than the Conservatives, the Tories would likely secure more seats in Parliament. Yet, Reform has the potential to be a major player by taking votes from the Tories, which could increase Labour’s majority.
Recent Polling Data
As of Thursday, Labour was on 44.1% versus 22.4% for the Conservatives in Bloomberg’s rolling 14-day average using data from 11 polling companies. This gives Labour a margin of 21.7 points. Reform’s average rating was 12.9%.
Potential Tory Vote Implosion
In December last year, a report by pollster JL Partners suggested the Tory vote could face an “implosion” as its supporters began to flock to Reform.
