UK Polling Expert Foresees New Brexit Referendum
Renowned political scientist John Curtice has forecast the possibility of another referendum on Britain's membership in the EU within the next 16 years. Curtice's prediction, made during a discussion at the U.K. in a Changing Europe research organization, highlights the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Britain's relationship with the European Union post-Brexit.
Curtice's Prognosis:
Drawing parallels with the unsuccessful 1975 referendum that led Britain into the European Communities, Curtice expressed skepticism about the long-term success of the 2016 Brexit referendum. He emphasized the role of shifting demographics and changing attitudes, particularly among younger voters, in potentially paving the way for another referendum.
Age Divide and Brexit Attitudes:
Curtice underscored the significance of generational differences in Brexit attitudes, pointing out that a vast majority of younger voters favored remaining in the EU during the 2016 referendum. Ipsos polling data revealed stark contrasts, with 75 percent of 18–24-yyear-olds voting to remain compared to only 34 percent of 65–74-yyear-olds.
Impact of Future Political Dynamics:
According to Curtice, the timing of another referendum hinges on the unpredictable landscape of British politics. He highlighted the pivotal role of an incoming Labour government in shaping the country's relationship with the EU. While Labour's stance on Brexit remains nuanced, Curtice emphasized the party's alignment with an electorate that is predominantly anti-Brexit.
Labour's Stance and Electoral Dynamics:
Curtice delved into Labour's position on Brexit, acknowledging the party's commitment to prioritizing relationships with international allies, including the EU. Despite ruling out rejoining the bloc or its single market and customs union, Labour's anti-Brexit stance resonates with a significant portion of the electorate.
Implications for Future Policy and Electoral Outcomes:
As Labour's electoral base remains largely anti-Brexit, Curtice highlighted the potential impact on future policy decisions and electoral dynamics. While the specifics of Labour's approach towards the EU remain uncertain, the party's stance reflects broader shifts in public opinion and sets the stage for potential future developments, including the prospect of a new Brexit referendum.
