Why 2026 is Keir Starmer's make or break year

It seems to be a bit rife, Chris Mason writes in this . "When asked about rumors about his future as Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer said before Christmas. He was speaking with senior MPs on parliament's Liaison Committee at the time, and it's true that he uttered those words with a smile. Nonetheless, it's remarkable that we are in this location, but that he is acknowledging it. Sir Keir is one of only two people alive to lead the Labour Party to a general election win – and a 174-seat majority at that. However, just 18 months after the recurring discussion at Westminster is whether he will still be Prime Minister this year.

A nascent observer of global politics may well believe that the UK should be a haven of stability: a newish government with a colossal majority and years until the next general election. However, it is not just the prime minister, Labour MPs, and their domestic political rivals who are raving about the prime Minister's fragility that are being mentioned in foreign capitals, but it is also the prime ministry, Labour MEPs, or their There's another roll of the dice coming, a veteran observer of the diplomatic circuit told me recently. "The same numbers might still come up. But they might not.

Labour's crunch point in 2026

I wouldn't insult your intelligence by trying to pretend that campaigning to replace him isn't going to happen. This is often described as campaigning with a small

c

– discrete conversations and planning, the vast majority of which are long gone from the public eye and deniable. The political year's full circle isn't set to begin until May 7th. On that date, there will be elections to the Welsh Parliament, the Senedd, the Scottish Parliament, and several local authorities in England, all with potentially significant implications – both for how (and by whom) major parts of the UK are run and for various political figures, not least the prime minister. It's the possibility of an almighty shellacking that has prompted so many of Sir Keir's discussions. Labour is currently in power in the Senedd and also controls many of England's urban councils, where municipal elections are being held. Some Labour activists are concerned that leaving the job until the elections is too late. They fear that if they lose so many of their councillors or devolved parliament members, as well as the foot soldiers that so many local political parties rely on, they will fail so many. However, most believe the most likely crunch point comes after polling day. Many that support the prime minister are encouraging their coworkers to

keep our nerve,as one of my colleagues put it to me.We've got to,they add.What's the alternative?

The prospect of change vs no change

From Sir Keir's cheerleaders to his Labour detractors, there is a near-universal agreement that the government must do a great job at describing its own story and defining what it is about. It's the cliché critique that's so popular, by so many people and for so long. However, there is a reason for this: Many people believe there has been no such advancement.

We campaigned for 'change,' but we're going to be more specific about what we've been doing, why we'm doing it, and when, realistically, we could do it by,

one supporter says.

I despair at the storytelling. The Budget was a shambles. Politicians must be like teachers: walk people through life. Don't line up the excuses. Make an argument. Pick a fight,

adds a Labour critic. Early in the new year, a blitz of public facing activity from Downing Street is anticipated, including plenty on their own social media pages and in-depth conversations with influencers as well as more traditional dealings with traditional political reporters from telly, radio, newspapers, and news websites. The biggest challenge for No. 10 is the message they land on and the degree to which they stick to it. Expect the main theme of it to be that 2026 will be the year that people will begin to experience the change Labour promised at the election. And there will be a lot of talk about the cost of living. The prime minister's supporters are highlighting that stability is a virtue, because it is he who won the general election (which no one else would have) and whoever succeeds him after a likely chaotic leadership process, will inherit all of the issues that have made his life so difficult in the first place. In other words, be cautious what you want. It's Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who is currently speaking out most as a potential successor to Sir Keir. However, he is far from the only one. Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, is as well. Shabana Mahmood and others are among the Home Secretary's on the job. However, among those Labour MPs who are not supporters of the new Prime Minister, there is also fear.

People are still saying he's good on the telly, but they're really worried about how much he might change

is how one Labour MP – no fan of the prime minister – told me. Some of other potential prime ministerial candidates have given a similar review, which brings us to another topic – even if the party does come to an end, can it agree who would be more effective? Labour does not have a tendency to oust leaders with the same brutality that Conservatives are known for, and the prime minister is nothing if not determined. In other words, don't undervalue the possibility of no change in the wake of all the noise surrounding the possibility that change is imminent, don’t underestimate the possibility for no change.

Wales, Scotland and a confluence of headaches

Sir Keir Starmer is up against a lot. Firstly, Wales. The Senedd elections will result in a larger parliament, with new, large constituencies and a proportional voting system. And, in Labour's case, there is a confluence of headaches – not least the issue of double incumbency – the party is in government in both Cardiff and Westminster, making it much more difficult to assign blame elsewhere for failures. The mood in Welsh Labour is beyond bleak as they consider the possibility of losing control in the devolved government for the first time since 1999, when what is now called the Senedd was established. The Scottish National Party from Labour lost in 2015 in Scotland's seemingly impregnable Central Belt – and beyond. The Conservatives lost seats in Midlands and northern England in 2019, thanks to Labour's ostensibly impregnable so-called red wall of Midlands Both Labour and Labour have returned to Labour, but the possibility of losing Wales has swung back to Labour. The psychological impact could be huge. The Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru are upbeat to the point of almost not believing the reception they are getting. But Reform UK look highly competitive too. So, what will happen in a scenario where Reform emerged as the country's largest party but not large enough to rule alone, and with no other party willing to enter coalition? Is Plaid able to lead their own coalition or a more formal arrangement with others, one critic would describe a losers coalition? Could they refuse, and in doing so force another election? Secondly, there is London, where Labour runs 21 of the 32 councils are up for re-election. May looks really bad, a senior Labour figure in the capital says.

There's Reform in the outer boroughs. The Greens in places like Hackney. Gaza-leaning independents in places like Redbridge. And in London, we have so many MPs and party members.

Come the weekend after the polls, they'll be worrying in so many directions all at once.

Five Labour councillors in Brent, north London, were first introduced to the Green Party a few weeks ago. Any Conservatives make positive comments about Wandsworth and Westminster. As for Scotland, Labour will argue that Scottish voters should

consider the SNP's 18 years in government in Scotland, not Labour's at Westminster's. One senior figure in the Scottish party told me that voters are selecting a first minister, not a prime minister. Labour activists also believe they are in good shape financially relative to the SNP. However, evidence shows that the UK Labour government is more unpopular in Scotland than the SNP Scottish Government. And it's also important to keep an eye on Scotland's reforms.

The fortunes of other parties

Liberal Democrats in London and the rest of England are also hoping to make strides in the many areas, mainly in the south, where they gained swaths of parliamentary seats in 2024. If they don't, there could be internal complaints that Sir Ed Davey isn't doing enough to attract the majority of their 72 MPs. Then there is the Green Party of England and Wales, with its new leader who was elected in September. In opinion polls, Zack Polanski, who is more thoughtful in private than his often flamboyish public persona, has supervised a surge in support for the Greens, but the Green Party is facing growing scrutiny and a party machine that is struggling to scale up to cope with its growing. Conservatives are also suffering a popularity slump at the same time as Labour. The other is usually down when one is up, and vice versa. That trough in support for the Conservative imperils leader Kemi Badenoch, although her share price among Conservative MPs increased sharply in the final months of the year, following a well-deserved party conference address and improved results at Prime Minister's Question Time. Her party's dismal poll results make her vulnerable, just as Labour's leave the prime minister vulnerable. But it is Sir Keir Starmer's future in office – or the potential lack of it – that will dominate so much political discourse in 2026. Sir Keir, the sixth prime minister in a decade, has led a government for the past ten years in the United Kingdom. Brexit, the pandemic, flatlining living conditions, war in Europe, the breadth of politically viable political parties, and the flurry of social media have all contributed, some at Westminster, to the stamp of a much earlier sell-by-date on our leaders than ever before. It will be quite a year ahead. Top image credit: PA Wire BBC InDepthis the home of the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the day's biggest topics. You can now sign up for alerts that will alert you whenever an InDepth story is published - click here to find out how.