New Data Reveals X's User Decline in the US and UK

Despite Elon Musk’s frequent claims that X (formerly known as Twitter) is hitting record usage highs and remains a crucial platform for connecting people, recent data paints a different picture. It appears that X is struggling to maintain user interest, with many leaving the platform due to Musk's controversial comments and political views shared on the app.

Decline in U.S. and U.K. Users

Recent insights have shown a noticeable drop in user activity, particularly in the United States and the United Kingdom. This decline has coincided with Musk's decision to continue promoting his political opinions. One significant event that triggered a reduction in users was Musk’s response to reports of race-based riots in the U.K., where he claimed that “civil war is inevitable.” This comment is believed to have led to many U.K. users abandoning the platform.

Impact on Active Users

According to data from Similarweb, the number of active daily users in the U.K. has dropped from 8 million a year ago to around 5.6 million. A significant portion of this decline occurred after the summer riots. A similar trend can be seen in other regions, including the U.S., where active users have fallen by approximately 20% over the same 16-month period.

Decline in EU Users

X’s user decline isn’t limited to the U.S. and U.K. As part of its reporting obligations within the European Union, X provided data covering the first half of 2024, which showed a 5% reduction in EU users. This trend highlights the platform’s difficulties in retaining its user base in key markets.

The Situation in Brazil

Adding to X’s challenges, the platform remains banned in Brazil, where it once had around 20 million users. Though this ban may soon be lifted, the absence of such a large user base only compounds the difficulties X is facing in maintaining global user numbers.

Misleading Claims of Growth

So, why does Musk keep asserting that X is growing? Much of it boils down to selective reporting. For example, Musk has often claimed that X is the number one news app in several regions. However, this is misleading, as X has been classified as a news app since 2016, following Twitter’s decision to change its category from “social media” to “news.” This change allows X to rank higher than most traditional news apps, but it does not reflect a genuine rise in its standing. Moreover, X is primarily a social media platform reliant on user-generated content (UGC), meaning it cannot be officially listed as a news app on platforms like Google Play Store.

User Metrics and Changing Parameters

Musk is also focusing on a new metric called “user seconds” to measure the app’s performance. However, many of these metrics are vague, and third-party measurement providers consistently report that X is seeing a user decline. It’s likely that X’s recent performance metrics only include data post-rebrand from Twitter to X, rather than covering Twitter’s full history. This selective presentation of data makes it difficult to accurately assess the platform’s real standing.

Revenue Decline and the Future of X

Compounding the issue, X is also experiencing a decline in revenue. With falling user numbers and diminishing revenue streams, many are questioning the long-term viability of Musk’s X project. Features such as the introduction of Grok, X’s AI chatbot, have done little to stop the platform’s downward trajectory.

The Upcoming U.S. Election and Its Impact

The future of X could be influenced by the upcoming U.S. election. Musk has closely aligned himself with Donald Trump, and if Trump wins, it could provide Musk with a direct link to the White House, potentially benefiting his other ventures, such as SpaceX. A Trump victory might help Musk re-align government policies to favour his businesses. However, if Trump loses, Musk’s political gamble could backfire, leaving X in a precarious position.

The Uncertain Future of X

If Trump fails to secure a re-election, it’s possible that Musk may have to reconsider his broader strategy. Without the political influence he hopes to gain, X may no longer hold the same value for Musk. In that case, X could face the possibility of being shut down or sold off. Ultimately, Musk’s bet on his personal influence and the success of X could prove to be a risky endeavour.

X’s future now hangs in the balance, dependent on external factors such as political outcomes and its ability to reverse the current trend of declining users and revenue.