Confronted over Greenland, Europe is ditching its softly-softly approach to Trump

Europe and the Greenland Crisis

Something in Europe has snapped. On Monday night, Donald Trump remarked that the US "has to have" Greenland for national security reasons. He suggested that Europe’s leaders were not going to "push back too much." However, that is clearly not the strategy they have in mind as they prepare to meet the US president at the World Economic Forum (WEF) this Wednesday.

Greenland is a semi-autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark; while it is a member of NATO, it maintains a complex relationship with the EU as an associated territory. President Trump is now leaning heavily on Denmark’s allies—pressuring them to abandon Copenhagen and allow the US to take over Greenland—or face punitive duties on all exports to the United States. It is a chilling prospect for European economies, especially those heavily dependent on the American market, such as Germany’s automotive industry and Italy’s luxury goods sector.

Following an emergency meeting with his French counterpart ahead of the WEF, Germany’s finance minister said on Monday: "We will not allow ourselves to be blackmailed."

The Trump threats came as a slap in the face for European governments which, in the case of the EU and the UK, had only recently concluded difficult tariff discussions with the US president last year. We are living through uncharted territory. According to France’s Finance Minister, Roland Lescure, it is unprecedented for an "ally and friend of 250 years" to consider tariffs as a geopolitical weapon.

"A line has been crossed," his German counterpart, Lars Klingbeil, added. "I will not speculate on today's outcomes, but one thing is certain: Europe must be prepared." All of a sudden, the "softly-softly" approach to Trump, which Europe’s leaders had favoured since his return to the White House for a second term, seems to have passed its sell-by date.

Europe’s 'Good Cop, Bad Cop' Approach

It is too early to read the last rites on transatlantic relations, but the EU is hoping to approach the US president in Switzerland this Wednesday by "speaking softly" while carrying a significant stick. Theodore (Teddy) Roosevelt believed that diplomacy backed by solid authority was essential to achieving objectives; Europe now seems to be adopting its own "good cop, bad cop" strategy.

European leaders have informed President Trump that they will help him prioritise Arctic security, arguing there is no need for him to "go it alone" over Greenland. Simultaneously, EU diplomats have confirmed they are considering retaliatory tariffs worth €93 billion (£80 billion) on US exports. They are also weighing a ban on American companies—potentially including banks and high-tech firms—from entering the bloc’s vast single market.

These retaliatory steps would almost certainly have a knock-on effect on American consumers. European Union investors have a large presence in almost all 50 US states and are responsible for an estimated 3.4 million American jobs. On the stage of international diplomacy, the EU has often had a fragmented presence, comprised of 27 frequently bickering nations. However, it possesses immense clout regarding the global economy and trade, where the European Commission acts on behalf of the entire single market.

As the world’s largest exporter of goods and services, accounting for nearly 16% of world trade in 2024, Brussels is hoping President Trump will move away from his maximalist position and find a compromise. To do otherwise would risk losing close allies and being held responsible for rising US consumer prices. "Our highest priority is to engage, not escalate," EU Commission deputy spokesperson Olof Gill said on Monday.

Developing a Spine

"Trump is causing the Europeans to develop a spine," says Niclas Poitiers, an economist and international trade expert at the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank. He suggests that while the damage caused by these tariffs is manageable for Europe, "the EU cannot afford not to react."

However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared less impressed. Painting a portrait of a president with a fixed mind ahead of Davos, he noted: "The President considers Greenland a strategic asset for the United States. We are not going to outsource our hemispheric defence to anyone else." He warned that "retaliation by Europe through tariffs would be unwise."

Europe feels trapped: damned if it takes action, damned if it does not. Some fear that a confrontational stance could further alienate Washington. The hard truth is that Europe still needs Washington to ensure a sustainable peace agreement for Ukraine and to maintain continental stability. Despite promises to increase defence spending, the continent remains heavily dependent on the US.

On Monday, while reaffirming support for Danish and Greenlandic sovereignty, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said it was in the UK’s national interest to continue collaborating with the Americans on defence and intelligence. "Our nuclear deterrent is our foremost weapon," he said. "My primary responsibility is to maintain a positive relationship with the US to ensure that deterrent remains credible."

The 'Board of Peace'

The geopolitical stakes are being watched closely by Russia and China. The West, traditionally defined by the tight knit between the US and Europe, appears to be unravelling. A growing number of major powers—including Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil—are asserting themselves in this new vacuum. China hopes that Donald Trump’s friction with his allies will allow Beijing to appear as a more reliable partner. Canada, meanwhile, recently signed a limited trade agreement with Beijing to minimise its exposure to Washington.

President Trump has shown little regard for multilateral organisations like NATO and the UN. Instead, he is establishing a "Board of Peace," with a signing ceremony intended for Davos this Thursday. Ostensibly designed to monitor Gaza’s reconstruction following the devastating two-year war, the Board’s charter implies a much larger mandate, perhaps intended to rival the United Nations.

France has already signalled its disapproval. A source close to Emmanuel Macron stated that France does not intend to join, noting that the Charter "raises significant concerns regarding the respect for United Nations principles." Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin was also invited to join the Board on Monday. Furthermore, questions have been raised regarding Trump’s demand that world leaders pay $1 billion for permanent membership.

Tara Varma, of the German Marshall Fund, maintains that the Peace Board is not about stability. "How can it be, if you invite figures like Putin? Trump wants the headlines of a peacemaker without the groundwork needed for sustainable peace. He cannot simply replace 80-year-old multilateral institutions."

Strained, but not Broken

President Trump’s flouting of international law is shaking the foundations of global order, perhaps forcing these organisations to restructure and become more relevant. There is a growing consensus that the UN Security Council should be less Western-centric, and European NATO members have finally accepted that they must pay more for their own defence.

In the US, polls suggest 86% of Americans oppose a military takeover of Greenland. On Capitol Hill, European lobbyists are working to remind lawmakers that Danish sovereignty must be protected. Transatlantic relations are not yet broken, but they are severely strained. Lines of communication remain open—Trump is still taking calls from leaders like Giorgia Meloni, Sir Keir Starmer, and Mark Rutte.

Ultimately, if Europeans want to stand their ground, they must work together. The UK’s "special relationship" with the US will be vital, but leaders remain torn between international principles and domestic concerns. A full-scale trade war would inevitably harm voters on both sides of the Atlantic, making the quest for a diplomatic solution more urgent than ever.