What's really going on with flu this winter?
Flu should always be taken seriously. Thousands of people die every winter every winter, and hospitals are put under intense strain. However, I can't recall a flu season that has been anything like this one. Experts say this year's flu is both a superflu
and unprecedented
across the media and even NHS England, although experts insist it is not out of the ordinary with reports of "crying wolf. So what's really going on and is there anything really different this year?
As I wrote in early November, there were fears that the flu season would be the worst for a decade. In June, scientists who monitor a variety of flu viruses around the world discovered seven new mutations in a strain of influenza, H3N2-based H3n2. This newly mutated virus quickly became the most common H3N2 variant and was named subclade-K. The flu season started a month early in the United Kingdom, with the virus potentially spreading more widely than than ever before, and it was too late to adjust this year's flu vaccine to match the new mutations. That was the initial concern, but the truth has been more in accordance with a normal flu than a super flu.
The K-flu virus has yet to rip into the population.
Prof Christophe Fraser, who is researching the virus's spread at the University of Oxford's Pandemic Sciences Institute. According to his team's latest reports, the mutations did have a slight edge in slipping past our immune systems – in a region of 5-10% more than average. It is not clear if that extends to everyone or is focused on children and young adults who have less flu in the past and who have been most affected so far.It was basically spreading at a much faster rate than previous years, it was approaching the upper end,
H3N2 viruses are always more deadly for the elderly, and there is no evidence that the virus is more prevalent than expected this year. Despite fears of a mismatch, a quick review of the seasonal flu vaccine indicated that it was doing well as previous years.
Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal, a UKHSA epidemiologist, said,The things that were odd this season include the early start to the season, but we also saw this change to the virus with more evolution than we normally see.
But overall, we're seeing a fairly normal flu season in terms of the effects on the NHS and the effects of people's health.The changes that were surprising this season were more subtle than we expect.
Fluoro has been reported to be at an all-time peak, but this is amid a lot of mystery. When everyone gathers up over Christmas, there are concerns about what happens, and it's easier for the virus to infect older people who are more vulnerable. A new strain of flu - H1N1 - is also on the rise in infections in Europe, and it could lead to an increase in cases here. However, a broadly typical flu season
is certainly not the one you'd expect from watching or reading the news. A statistical artistry was used to compare an early flu season to one that began much later, with flu cases being an astounding ten times higher
than 2023. It was technically correct, but it was like saying your train to Glasgow brought you there in record time. But the trip time was similar because you had just booked an earlier train.
NHS England was not the first company to announce it superflu, but Prof Meghana Pandit, the nation's national medical director, did describe it as a
I don't think it's a helpful term; there aren't a particular series of signs, and there is no evidence of it being associated with extreme sensitivity, rapid dissemination, or exceptional health effects,unprecedented wave of super flu. While resident doctors were debating whether or not to proceed with strike action, the British Medical Association has suggested that flu has been used to scaremonger. Superflu isn't a scientific term, and the BBC health team has yet to find one expert who believes it is correct.
not particularly unusualProf Fraser says. Prof Nicola Lewis, the director of the Francis Crick Institute's World Influenza Center, said the virus was
and thatno evidence
of the virus had beenparticularly different
andwouldn't be my name. Prof Jonathan Van-Tam, England's former deputy chief medical officer during the pandemic, posed with the naughty term 'superflu'.
Crying wolf?
Persuading people to get the flu vaccine saves lives, and the jabs are estimated to have kept around 100,000 people out of hospital last winter. However, experts have begun to wonder if the increase in word use since the Covid pandemic has jeopardized official health care. Previous winters were plagued with warnings of a tripledemic of influenza, Covid, and RSV; then it was upgraded to a quademic with norovirus added in; this year, it's superflu Dr. Simon Williams, a professor of psychology and public health at Swansea University, says there are issues with current language
in some way or another, including the possibility of a cry wolf
effect, which damages confidence and causes people to become numb
to the advice.
he said,Over-using the myth that viruses will overrun the NHS,
fine balancethe NHS hasn't been overwhelmed to the point of not being able to perform emergency and basic functions. Rather, he claims that a
is needed between raising awareness andnot falling into the trap of fear-messaging or being overly concerned, which can backfire. Prof Jonathan Ball, a Nottingham University virologist, admits that using words like super flu is a concern when we might have a real super flu one day. "We have to be very, very cautious in how we tell these things to the public, because there is a chance that we might cry wolf.
