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  • Wednesday, 21 January 2026

UK inflation rises for first time in five months - but one-off factors blamed

UK inflation rises for first time in five months - but one-off factors blamed

Official estimates indicate that higher tobacco prices and airfares pushed the UK rate of inflation higher for the first time in five months. The rise to 3. The year-to-date, which was up 4% than anticipated, with the majority economists predicting only a modest rise. Analysts, on the other hand, do not believe it signals the start of a longer, upward trend in December because it includes one-off items such as flight costs over Christmas and an increase in tobacco tax that was not disclosed in the Budget. The rise in inflation comes ahead of the Bank of England's first meeting of the year to determine on interest rates - it didn't happen in 2025 by lowering the cost of borrowing to 3. 75%.

Inflation rose from 3. In the year-to-November, the year saw an increase in the year to November, which was higher than the prediction of 3. 3%. On February 5, the Bank of England's rate-setting committee will convene. The increase, according to Michael Saunders, a former rate-setter at the Bank,

is not the start of a new upward trend, it reflects a multitude of somewhat temporary erratic factors. He said that it was unlikely that the Bank would lower borrowing rates in February, but that it hopes to announce
gradualcuts this year.The reason they can't cut quickly is because inflation and wage increases are still too high for comfort,
he said. During December, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which released the results, said airfares was a significant contributor to inflation
because of the timing of return flights over the Christmas and New Year period. Tobacco prices increased largely as a result of duty increases that were announced in the Budget on November 26.
Rising food prices, particularly for bread and cereals, are also a riser
to inflation, according to ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said in reaction to the survey that the most important thing in budget was lowering the cost of living, quoting steps in Budget including a freeze to rail fares and prescription fees. There's more to do, she said.
But this year is the year when Britain turns a corner.
However, shadow chancellor Mel Stride blamed the rise on the government's economic mismanagement.A record-high tax burden and irresponsible borrowing are stifling growth and fuelling inflation, fuelling unemployment," he said. According to the reports, some aspects of inflation were eased in December, such as rents, were reduced. Rents in housing and household services, which measures rents, slowed to 4. 4 percent in 2014. 9% compared to a 5. In the 12 months from November, the 1% increase jumped by 1%.

The figures show that transportation prices increased by 4% in the 12 months to December, mainly due to airfares. This owes a great deal to timing differences, Hargreaves Lansdown's head of personal finance, Sarah Coles.

The flight prices being measured were Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve,
she said when the ONS determined the average inflation rate in December 2024. But she said that they were registered on December 23 and December 30 in December 2025.
Prices are naturally lower on high days and holidays, and on holidays,
Coles said. A 4. The increase in the cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks was mainly due to bread, cereals, and vegetables. According to Balwinder Dhoot, the Food and Drink Federation's director of growth and sustainability, households were feeling the squeeze, resulting in a subdued Christmas for the sector. "The low consumer confidence in the UK, as well as the possibility of continued geopolitical instability, is troubling for food and drink manufacturers who face increasing costs and tighter budgets themselves.

In comparison to European neighbors, the UK's inflation rate in December was higher than that of European neighbors. Inflation in Germany increased by 2% in the year to December, the first year that UK inflation has been below that of Germany's. In France, the rate was 0. 7%. According to Sanjay Raja, Deutsche Bank's chief UK economist, UK inflation will

take a big step down in January. He predicted that by spring, the Bank of England's 2% target will
be in sight.
In fact, we expect the UK to see the largest drop in headline inflation of any G7 nation this year,
he said.

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