As the two most influential nations globally, the relationship between the United States and China is the most significant bilateral tie in the world. Any shift in their interactions reverberates far beyond Washington and Beijing, affecting global security, trade, and economic stability.
Xi Jinping’s Message to Biden
During their recent meeting in Peru, President Xi Jinping emphasised the global importance of a stable US-China relationship. As the leaders convened on the sidelines of an economic forum, likely their final face-to-face before the transition of power to Donald Trump, Xi stressed collaboration over discord.
"China and the United States must bear in mind the interests of the entire world," Xi stated via a translator. "A stable relationship between our two nations is critical not only for our citizens but for the future of humanity."
This pointed message underscores the high stakes of their relationship, particularly at a time of global uncertainty.
Biden’s Emphasis on Dialogue
President Joe Biden, who shares a longstanding relationship with Xi from his time as vice president under Barack Obama, echoed the need for open communication.
"We haven’t always agreed, but our conversations have always been candid and frank," Biden remarked, seated across from Xi at a table flanked by aides. "Such dialogue prevents miscalculations and ensures that competition does not escalate into conflict."
Biden’s emphasis on dialogue highlights his belief in diplomacy, even amidst disagreements, as a means to maintain stability.
A Shift in Approach Under Trump
Despite Biden’s calls for constructive engagement, it is unlikely Donald Trump will take his advice on managing the US-China relationship. Throughout his presidency, Trump criticised the Biden administration for being lenient on Beijing and pledged a tougher stance.
Trump’s proposed policies, including imposing 60% tariffs on Chinese imports, signal a shift towards greater hostility. His selection of China hawks for key roles in his administration, such as Senator Marco Rubio for secretary of state and Representative Mike Walz as national security adviser, further indicates a hardening US position on China.
The Implications of Rising Tensions
The transition of global dominance from Washington to Beijing mirrors historical shifts, such as the decline of the British Empire. This inevitable reordering of power is fraught with challenges, particularly under a more confrontational leader in the White House.
Heightened tensions between the US and China risk destabilising the international order, creating a perilous environment for nations worldwide. The potential for economic conflict or military missteps looms large as both sides grapple with their roles in an evolving global hierarchy.
Why Dialogue Remains Essential
Amidst these challenges, the importance of sustained communication between Beijing and Washington cannot be overstated. Xi Jinping and Joe Biden both recognise that, while their relationship may fluctuate, maintaining open lines of dialogue is essential to avoid miscalculations and manage competition constructively.
Biden’s view that competition should remain just that – competition, not conflict – reflects a desire for stability. However, the incoming administration’s more aggressive approach may jeopardise this fragile equilibrium.
The Road Ahead
The future of US-China relations is poised to shape the global landscape in profound ways. As Beijing continues its rise and Washington recalibrates its strategy, the actions of both nations will influence international politics, economics, and security.
For the world to navigate this era of transition, steady leadership, open communication, and mutual respect between the US and China will be critical. The stakes are too high for missteps, making this bilateral relationship one of unparalleled importance.
