Japan Warns Trump: Avoid China Deals

In recent weeks, Japan, Asia's closest ally to the United States, has been intensifying efforts to communicate a crucial message to U.S. presidential hopeful Donald Trump: exercise caution when considering any deals with China that could jeopardize years of collective efforts to rein in Beijing and potentially unsettle the fragile peace in the region.

The outreach from Japan has gained momentum following Trump's victories in the Republican primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire, propelling him to the forefront in some polls for the upcoming presidential election in November. The efforts, largely undisclosed until now, involve engaging with individuals close to Trump, according to interviews with six Japanese officials.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is gearing up for a state visit to the U.S. in April, responding to an invitation from President Joe Biden. The concerns voiced by Japan primarily revolve around the possibility that a return of Trump to power might lead to unilateral trade or security deals with China, potentially undermining recent collaborative efforts by the Group of Seven (G7) nations to counter China.

While there is no specific knowledge of Trump's plans, Japanese officials base their worries on his past public comments and actions during his 2017–2021 term. The fear is that Trump may weaken U.S. support for Taiwan in pursuit of a deal with China, escalating tensions in a region where Beijing claims Taiwan.

Additionally, Japan is wary of facing protectionist trade measures, such as tariffs on steel, and renewed demands for increased financial contributions to support U.S. forces stationed in the country.

This proactive approach by Japan is aimed at pre-emptively understanding potential challenges and conveying Tokyo's positions. Trump's recent statement indicating opposition to the planned $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel by Japan's Nippon Steel adds to Japan's concerns.

Key figures in Japan, including Taro Aso from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the new U.S. ambassador, Shigeo Yamada, are reported to be actively working to establish connections with Trump and his close associates. Aso's recent visit to the U.S. was part of these efforts.

The intricate nature of these diplomatic efforts is further complicated by the evolving dynamics within the Trump administration. Several former cabinet members focused on Japan are no longer considered close to Trump, leaving Tokyo with the challenge of navigating these uncertainties.

As Japan anticipates potential shifts in U.S. policy under a Trump administration, its diplomatic efforts underscore the importance of multilateral approaches to regional challenges. The nation is seen as emphasizing the benefits of collaborative efforts, as demonstrated by the G7's agreement to counter economic coercion and secure critical supply chains.

The looming uncertainty regarding who will attempt to pacify Trump if he returns to office poses an additional challenge for Japan. Analysts suggest that the choice of Japan's leader may be influenced by Trump's stance, highlighting the delicate balance Tokyo must maintain in its diplomatic efforts.

As the U.S. presidential election draws closer, Japan remains vigilant, navigating a complex geopolitical landscape while striving to safeguard its interests in the face of potential policy shifts.