UK Urged to Prepare for 2°C of Global Warming by 2050

The UK must prepare for life in a hotter world—whether it's ready or not.

That’s the blunt message from the government’s independent Climate Change Committee (CCC), which has issued its starkest warning yet: the country should expect at least 2°C of global warming by 2050 and get serious about adapting to the increasingly extreme weather that comes with it.

“People in the UK are already experiencing the impacts of a changing climate, and we owe it to them to prepare, and also to help them prepare,” said Baroness Brown, who chairs the CCC’s Adaptation Committee.

The CCC’s letter to ministers, backed by new analysis, warns that the UK is “not yet adapted” to the rising risks we’re already facing at current warming levels—"let alone" those expected under a 2°C scenario.

This level of warming would bring more frequent heatwaves, longer wildfire seasons, worsening droughts, and increased flood risks. The report notes that some river flows could surge by up to 40%, and southern England could face ten times as many days with extreme risk of wildfires.

The 2°C threshold used to feel far off. But with global temperatures already edging close to 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, many scientists now say it’s time to plan for what was once seen as a worst-case scenario. “Though the change from 1.5C and 2C may sound small, the difference in impacts would be substantial,” explained CCC adviser Professor Richard Betts.

The 2015 Paris Agreement set the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C if possible. While that ambition still stands, experts admit it’s now far less likely to be achieved—making adaptation a must. “We continue to believe 1.5C is achievable as a long-term goal,” said Baroness Brown. “But clearly the risk it will not be achieved is getting higher, and for risk management we do believe we have to plan for 2C.” She added, “Every fraction of a degree makes a difference and every fraction of a degree makes adaptation more expensive as well.”

The UK has already experienced four official heatwaves this year and just faced its hottest summer on record. According to the Met Office, a summer like 2025’s is now 70 times more likely than it would have been without human-driven climate change.

Despite these warning signs, the CCC says current preparations are falling behind. A review earlier this year concluded that adaptation efforts were either “too slow, had stalled, or are heading in the wrong direction.” That’s despite increasing threats to food security, infrastructure, and public health. This summer alone, 300 excess deaths were recorded in London during extreme heat.

“It is now very challenging even to stay below two degrees,” said Professor Eric Wolff of the Royal Society. “This is a wake-up call both to continue reducing emissions, but at the same time to prepare our infrastructure and economy for the inevitable climate changes that we are already committed to.”

The CCC is pushing for a national adaptation plan with long-term goals, reviewed every five years, and with each government department held accountable. The committee also says even new developments—including power stations and housing—should be built with the possibility of 4°C of warming in mind. Further, more detailed recommendations for sectors like health, farming, and transport are expected in a major report due May 2026.

Dr. Douglas Parr from Greenpeace UK stressed the urgency of making change: “Alarm bells should be ringing in government. This has implications right across government in health, housing, transport, and business, so No.10 must not make the error of leaving this to the Environment Department.”

Baroness Brown also expressed concern over recent political moves to weaken climate legislation. She called it “disappointing,” adding that any climate strategy should not just focus on energy supply, but must also address how the UK will adapt to climate risks already unfolding. “Adaptation in the UK is not keeping up with the increase in climate risk. The impacts on the UK are getting worse and (the government) needs more ambition,” she said.