UK net migration 20% lower in 2024 than first thought, ONS says

According to updated estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), net migration to the UK last year was 20% lower than previously expected. The figure has been revised down by 86,000 and now stands at 345,000 for the year ending 2024.

The driving factor behind the revision is that more British nationals are estimated to have emigrated in 2024 than ever before, with 100,000 fewer now believed to be living in the United Kingdom.

However, the statistics show that migration to the UK soared higher than anticipated between April 2022 and March 2023, adding 944,000 to the country's population. Previous estimates had suggested the number had risen by 906,000 by June 2023.

The latest figures add to the overall estimate of net migration to the UK between 2021 and 2024, which has been revised down slightly from 2.6 million to 2.5 million.

These figures come after the government revealed new plans aimed at reforming the asylum system, which include periodic reviews of asylum status and restrictions on migrants' rights to claim benefits.

Methodology Changes

The ONS has been updating the methods used to produce official migration estimates since 2020. Previously, statisticians polled a small number of passengers at airports and ports about their travel plans to determine how many arrivals intended to remain.

However, the findings obtained by this technique were "implausibly low" for British nationals, according to Dr Madeleine Sumption, head of the Migration Observatory think tank.

The new estimates are based on how often people appear in tax and welfare records, providing a more accurate and detailed picture of migration. According to the ONS, 257,000 British nationals left the country in 2024, while 143,000 Britons living abroad returned. This means net migration of Britons—the difference between departures and arrivals—is minus 114,000, rather than the initial estimate of minus 17,000.

These figures are "still not definitive," according to Dr Sumption, because the data does not strictly track when someone enters or leaves the country. If someone stays in the UK but disappears from tax and welfare records (for example, because they are living on savings), they could incorrectly be counted as an emigrant, skewing the estimates.

The ONS has not used this method to track EU migration, relying instead on visa and border data collected by the Home Office. According to data obtained under the old model, there were 96,000 fewer EU citizens in the UK by the end of 2024, but the new model has reduced this net outflow figure to 69,000.

Why has migration been rising?

The most notable shift has been attributed to changes introduced under Boris Johnson's government from 2021. The three main reasons identified are:

• An increase in work visas, particularly in health and social care.

• A rise in student visas.

• The opening of humanitarian routes for people from Ukraine, Hong Kong, and Afghanistan.

In that period, small boat crossings have also increased. So far this year, 39,075 people have crossed the Channel.

Both the Conservative and Labour governments have struggled to combat the increasing migration figures. Rishi Sunak, the former Prime Minister, placed limits on the right of students to bring their families to the UK.

Current Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood declared major reforms to the asylum system on Monday, describing it as "out of control and unfair."

Ms Mahmood told the House of Commons: "If we don't deal with this crisis, we will lead more people down a path that begins with rage and ends in hatred."