Turkey Poised to Approve Sweden's NATO Membership, Easing Alliance Expansion
In a pivotal move for NATO expansion, Turkey's parliament is anticipated to give the green light to Sweden's NATO membership bid on Tuesday, marking a significant step towards broadening the Western military alliance. The vote in Turkey's general assembly, where President Tayyip Erdogan's ruling alliance holds a majority, comes after 20 months since Sweden formally requested to join NATO in the aftermath of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
With a parliamentary ratification expected, President Erdogan is likely to sign the approval into law within days. This leaves Hungary as the lone member state yet to endorse Sweden's NATO accession. Hungary, while expressing that NATO membership is not a priority for Sweden, had committed not to be the last ally to ratify Sweden's membership. However, Hungary's parliament is in recess until mid-February.
Turkey and Hungary maintain comparatively warmer relations with Russia within the NATO framework. Despite opposing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Turkey has criticized Western sanctions on Moscow and warned of potential responses if NATO strengthens military infrastructure in Nordic states.
The delay in securing Turkey's approval has caused frustration among some Western allies, enabling Ankara to extract certain concessions. When Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO in 2022, Turkey raised objections, citing concerns over their perceived protection of groups designated as terrorists by Ankara, particularly members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
While Turkey endorsed Finland's NATO membership in April last year, it, along with Hungary, had withheld approval for Sweden. Ankara called on Stockholm to take a tougher stance on local PKK members. In response, Sweden introduced a new anti-terrorism bill criminalizing membership in terrorist organizations. Additionally, Sweden, Finland, Canada, and the Netherlands relaxed arms-export policies related to Turkey.
President Erdogan, who sent Sweden's bid to parliament in October, has linked its ratification to U.S. approval for the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. The White House supports the sale, but there is no clear timeline for U.S. Congressional approval. Turkey faces opposition in Congress over concerns related to NATO enlargement delays and its human rights record.
The general assembly vote is scheduled to take place at 1200 GMT, with Sweden's NATO bid anticipated to be among the initial matters debated. Last month, the foreign affairs commission in parliament approved the bid, with Erdogan's AK Party, nationalist allies MHP, and the main opposition CHP endorsing it. However, opposition nationalist and Islamist parties opposed the bid.
MHP leader Devlet Bahceli reaffirmed his party's support for Sweden's NATO bid, indicating that the approval process is poised to proceed in the general assembly vote. The outcome will significantly impact NATO's strategic landscape and highlight the intricate dynamics at play within the alliance.
